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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2022 9:15:24 GMT -6
flood watch from 4pm through late tonight
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 8, 2022 9:51:49 GMT -6
Seems centered right on metro St. Louis per the latest perimeters. Some models like the WRF are dumping 6-8" pockets of heavy rain around the metro with most showing 1-3". Least severe weather probabilities are low, but given how waterlogged these storms will be, can't rule out a couple wet microburst/cloudburst potential and training as the weak front stalls overhead tonight. Plus it's still largely cloud free around here, so plenty of Capes to work with and decent moisture transport. Nothing exceptional, but enough.
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Post by tedrick65 on Aug 8, 2022 10:19:58 GMT -6
Yankees got off to an amazing start but have been playing 500 ball since mid June. Not taking anything away from the Cardinals because that was an awesome series. Yo be fair they did play this weekend without Rizzo and Stanton …. Those are 2 pretty big bats That all being said... I'm already tired of baseball in the NL DH era and still don't like the 3 batter minimum rule for relievers. Maybe that just proves I'm getting old. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 8, 2022 10:30:55 GMT -6
Man am I glad the front is coming. It’s nearly unbearable today.
Let’s get that water out of the air and onto the ground!
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 8, 2022 10:31:35 GMT -6
Having the DH takes away some of strategy. It also brings the NL and AL closer in terms of rules. At this point you have to question whether it even makes sense have two separate leagues anymore.
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 8, 2022 11:36:05 GMT -6
Man am I glad the front is coming. It’s nearly unbearable today. Let’s get that water out of the air and onto the ground! It's awful. Just never ending. Hopefully today is last 100+ HI of the year. Wishful thinking? haha |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 8, 2022 12:44:49 GMT -6
Just seen an article that the Farmer's Almanac is colder and snowier here. It didn't have a map but it sounded like this area was involved.🤔🤔🤞🤞🤞
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 13:27:06 GMT -6
Echo tops on the Cell along the st clair and Madison county boarder literally went from 15,000 feet to 50,000 feet 20 mins
CAPE must be enormous right now
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 8, 2022 13:27:53 GMT -6
Yep.
Literally seeing lightning bolts before you see anything else on radar. Easy to tell where next storm is popping.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 13:29:29 GMT -6
Yep. Literally seeing lightning bolts before you see anything else on radar. Easy to tell where next storm is popping. My windows rattled from one thunder clap. Looking NNW I can see billowing clouds. For a couple mins you could see the tops billowing upwards in size like a nuclear explosion in slow motion. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 8, 2022 13:30:02 GMT -6
Echo tops on the Cell along the st clair and Madison county boarder literally went from 15,000 feet to 50,000 feet 20 mins CAPE must be enormous right now It's a loud storm. |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 8, 2022 13:30:59 GMT -6
Echo tops on the Cell along the st clair and Madison county boarder literally went from 15,000 feet to 50,000 feet 20 mins CAPE must be enormous right now It's a loud storm. Very loud and rumbly. I love it.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 13:33:13 GMT -6
Echo tops on the Cell along the st clair and Madison county boarder literally went from 15,000 feet to 50,000 feet 20 mins CAPE must be enormous right now It's a loud storm. Im ready for the end of this crazy humidity... Out here in Belleville/surrounding small cities I wouldn't be surprised if dews are close to 80. Whenever I'm walking from the train station to my apartment as soon as I cross into the thicker grass you can feel the humidity encompass you. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 13:38:23 GMT -6
It's amazing that the cells that have echo tops below 25-30K feet are sliding Eastward.
The ones that blow up higher you can see the higher tops sliding NW while the base is trying to slide Eastward.
That's why the one by Madison/Brooklyn appears like it's not moving
The other two smaller ones out on the East side of OFallon are moving Eastward slowly.
If they blow up more they will have the same issue
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 8, 2022 13:44:24 GMT -6
Seems like models have backed off on the heavy rain potential early week...the LLJ is almost non-existent so it'll probably be more of a pulse thunderstorm setup vs. training storms. After that, a pretty textbook looking ring of fire setup develops towards next weekend. Pretty active week shaping up overall. So about that backing off... Looks like they were right to begin with, then got unsure of themselves (the models) only to pull right back in. Tonight looks rather noisy and soggy around the metro into much of southwestern Illinois...  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 8, 2022 13:46:33 GMT -6
It's amazing that the cells that have echo tops below 25-30K feet are sliding Eastward. The ones that blow up higher you can see the higher tops sliding NW while the base is trying to slide Eastward. That's why the one by Madison/Brooklyn appears like it's not moving The other two smaller ones out on the East side of OFallon are moving Eastward slowly. If they blow up more they will have the same issue Looks like it all wants to eventually merge and train over or just south of I-70. It's gonna be one of those kind of deals it seems... Lots of juice (energy and moisture, a weak front, and low shear along with modest convergence), and training with time. Someone could see 8" out of this along or just south of I-70. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2022 14:12:08 GMT -6
We'll see. Gonna be tough to get training storms with basically no LLJ to promote moisture transport/backbuilding. Still think pulse storms are the preferred mode with this setup. Certainly potential for isolated FFing with high PWATs though. Just don't think anyone is going to see 4"+ amounts.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2022 15:05:34 GMT -6
Also, for those keeping track, today marks 8 straight days of dewpoints at or above 75* with 6 of those hitting 80* and a high of 83* which breaks my all-time station record. Amazing what a foot of rain will do. You can tell there's massive evapotranspiration occurring by looking at the daily trend...dews actually lower at night and begin to climb around 10am and peak during max heating. Usually, you'd see a drop during the day with heating/mixing but not with all that water in the ground. Disgusting humidity!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 8, 2022 15:28:11 GMT -6
We'll see. Gonna be tough to get training storms with basically no LLJ to promote moisture transport/backbuilding. Still think pulse storms are the preferred mode with this setup. Certainly potential for isolated FFing with high PWATs though. Just don't think anyone is going to see 4"+ amounts. NWS seems to be going with my predictions more or less, but recent radar trends do leave much to be desired... |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 8, 2022 15:54:19 GMT -6
I can hear good Thunder From The Storm down south of me over Southern Jeffco but it looks like Pevely and Festus might be in for quite a bit of rainfall with those cells popping.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Aug 8, 2022 16:02:30 GMT -6
Will there be more storms/rain later? Looks south of where the HPC had the most rain.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 8, 2022 16:02:39 GMT -6
Wonder if I'm even going to get anything up my way now. Earlier it looked more promising.
Our garden needs moisture. But wanted to hold off until I seen what today ends up doing...
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 8, 2022 16:17:56 GMT -6
It’s pouring down this way
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 8, 2022 16:37:26 GMT -6
things will develop north of the front later
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 8, 2022 17:08:21 GMT -6
.7 with the first storm
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 17:24:14 GMT -6
It's pouring so hard.
Power just went out for 20 seconds because of the lightening strikes.
This storm can move on.
Way to hit to lose power
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 8, 2022 17:49:42 GMT -6
.003 at the house. 7 miles away in Fairview it absolutely poured.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Aug 8, 2022 17:58:49 GMT -6
They have us in a potential 4-5" rain band tonight. I really hope this doesn't materialize.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 8, 2022 18:13:02 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 8, 2022 18:36:52 GMT -6
Hmmm, I didn't think models showed that strong of a LLJ developing. Maybe I was looking at the wrong time stamp. If it's ~25kts...that will support training for sure.
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