Happy Father's Day - Chris's Corner 19 June 2022

some of the higher rainfall totals shown by the hrrr are a click or two further south than recent storms - thinking areas between 44 and the MO river. But I'd go with along and south of 70 for sure with this one. Plus, it really looks like this is an overnighter, not limited to just the evening. I have to wonder if the flash flood watch may ultimately be extended to noon tomorrow.

Complex situation over eastern missouri this evening and tonight. We have residual outflows draped across the metro...the arrival of the cold front should lead to boundary interaction with weak LLJ adding the cherry on top to ramp up storms rapidly as they reach the metro.

The watch may need to be expanded south a bit too. The MD issued by WPC earlier was very ominous about the setup tonight.

Man if this front gets past me and blows up with rain and storms I'm going to be so disappointed.

Hearing the past couple of weeks about non stop intense lightning made me so jealous.

I mean we could definitely see it from afar. And sometimes could hear thunder. But for the most part it wasn't here. I know I know, I'm not begging for flooding rains. Just some good lightning is all.

My basement is still wet and the damage is in the thousands so I’d prefer nothing.

I am not going to bed until the boundary passes south of me

That’s like 2-3” per hour rates just sitting over Osage beach. Absolutely insane.

I get that, but the last 3 or 4 events have brought flooding rains to parts of the area each time costing homeowners thousands of dollars. I still see social media posts to the effect of "i'll take this over snow". Seriously, how selfish that statement is, when people are still trying to dry out from last week, and even dealing with mold. We don't get snow of this magnitude, and repeat rainstorms that cost home owners thousands of dollars makes me grumpy about the people that hate snow. I, just like you, long for the days of just nocturnal rolling thunder and a good soaking rain through the night where I don't have to worry about foundations, flooded basements, water getting into places where it doesn't belong. But with the ring of fire pattern that we are immersed in, that's not for us this year. just seems that nature is especially volatile in recent times.

Looks like NWS is backing off the flash flood threat a bit.

I have some rain moving in soon. But not sure if it will last long or not.

My rain gauge says 3 1/2 inches.

.45" total. .12" since midnight

The radar is a bit deceptive with this rain in northern Ste. Gen county. It is absolutely dumping.

I saw a map on a page discussing this upcoming winter and how it will impact the Minnesota area -- we are smack dab in the middle of a "Cold, Snowy" area vs. being on the dividing line.  If the map is legit, which it appears to be...we MAY be in for a fun winter, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Link for reference

The watch was warranted, IMO...given the extremely moist airmass and potential for slow/stationary storm motions. The outflow/gravity wave produced by the storm cluster near LOTO gave the storms a nudge eastward and kept them progressive vs. stalling out. That's not something you can really predict until it's occurring.