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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 14, 2022 12:50:36 GMT -6
Definitely a notable NE shift in the model envelope overall with the 12z runs...most of them have the axis right through the Metro or just West of the river except for the outlier GFS which is quite a bit further NE with it setting up across the IL counties. The consensus is a 1-3" event with spots to 4"...the setup last month that produced the historic flooding had a 40kt LLJ aimed into the boundary and this time models are showing a 20-25kt LLJ and less instability available so it shouldn't be as intense...but still an impressive setup.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 15, 2022 6:57:38 GMT -6
Eastern Ozarks are going to get the brunt of this event tonight into Tuesday. Metro might not see much if anything, especially the northeastern half and points north and east of there. In otherwords looks like for the southwestern third of the area only kind of thing.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 15, 2022 7:05:43 GMT -6
That is great news we do not need the rain in eastern mo and western illinois.
The Columbia to the lake to west plaines is where they really need it and they can handle this amount because of how dry they are. Should have most of the drought gone with in the month with this cool damp pattern in the cpc across Missouri
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 15, 2022 7:12:00 GMT -6
Gfs brings snow to the CO Rockies by eom by looking at the ptype maps.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 15, 2022 8:37:41 GMT -6
Models shifted a bit SW with the heavy rainfall axis with the latest runs, still favoring Central/SE MO but putting the Metro on the NE edge. I still suspect that will shift a bit N. The 12z NAM shows the vort max tracking from roughly COU to CGI which argues for rain to get into the Metro...but the SLP/850 low tracks are displaced SW so it's a tricky setup to pin down. Either way, it's good to see some relief coming for the drought areas across MO.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 15, 2022 11:40:31 GMT -6
That is great news we do not need the rain in eastern mo and western illinois. The Columbia to the lake to west plaines is where they really need it and they can handle this amount because of how dry they are. Should have most of the drought gone with in the month with this cool damp pattern in the cpc across Missouri While we are not desperate for rain we could use a few inches down this way …. We missed most of the big rains ….. our lake is down about 2 feet …. Looks like we may miss this one also |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 15, 2022 12:19:22 GMT -6
Sorry Showtime, its hard to wrap my mind around some areas that had not had as much when we had so many problems from flooding in the metro.
Here is to hoping you get some rain tonight.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 15, 2022 13:19:58 GMT -6
Sorry Showtime, its hard to wrap my mind around some areas that had not had as much when we had so many problems from flooding in the metro. Here is to hoping you get some rain tonight. Yeah it’s been pretty crazy… 10 miles north of us had flooding and we barely got 2 inches of rain… It’s almost just like the winter time lol |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 15, 2022 14:45:00 GMT -6
Even though we had a good deal of rain it's drying up quickly here. We could use another inch or two, but not coming down by the bucket or barrel.. I would guess that many farmers are in the same position.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 15, 2022 15:01:56 GMT -6
I agree the surface gets a bit dry however at least in my subdivision in St.Peters the soil is still pliable. I can make thumb imprints and still see tracks from the mower tires in the mud.
Only part that I notice is dryer is under the trees. However the nutsedge and mosquitos are horrible.
But I agree a half inch or an inch will be ok in the metro. Just don't want really more than that as I am noticing many rain chances over the next few weeks and somd models are quite soggy in and around the metro.
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Post by landscaper on Aug 15, 2022 16:07:05 GMT -6
It’s a strange storm track for summer/August, it looks like a strong Alberta clipper coming down only with rain….
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 15, 2022 16:28:59 GMT -6
It’s a strange storm track for summer/August, it looks like a strong Alberta clipper coming down only with rain…. I had the same thought earlier today. Maybe a preview for this upcoming winter? (probably not lol) |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 15, 2022 18:01:17 GMT -6
Radar shows a strong vort max just south of DSM on a SE trajectory...that's supportive for nearly area wide rainfall overnight into tomorrow AM. Looks like a nice soaker is on track.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 15, 2022 18:42:59 GMT -6
This looks like the perfect rain for most of the area. More of a soaker vs. a gully washer in most areas. The exception could be from central into southcentral Missouri where more convective elements are likely along with a period of training. Amounts will taper off as you move east of the Mississippi River. Metro totals will range from as little as 0.25 to perhaps as high as 2 inches. The big 2-4+ totals seem to be destined for central into southcenteral Missouri.
Wow... this thread was started on Father's Day. We may need a new one soon. Just been too busy.
It is an interesting overall weather pattern setting up which may preview Fall...and maybe early winter. I'm not sure at this point.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 15, 2022 18:43:14 GMT -6
took a look out into the med range...still seems likely we have at least a handful of temperatures maxing out into the 90s per the GFS. EC somewhat more subdued. CFS is on drugs. Main message, does not look like a gross, extended period of extreme heat. We are usually in the heat of the summer here in August with doldrum high pressure dominating, drought intensifying, and no real light at the end of the tunnel for easing a heat wave. But this year seems different. We could have Autumn arriving right on time for a change.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 15, 2022 18:46:42 GMT -6
Chris, when you say Central Missouri - what's your gut telling you for Warren County - are they in line for the 2 to 4, or are you thinking more central?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 15, 2022 19:00:59 GMT -6
Chris, when you say Central Missouri - what's your gut telling you for Warren County - are they in line for the 2 to 4, or are you thinking more central? Problem is... as much of the modeling has hinted at... there may be a relative drop in precip amounts in a narrow band somewhere between the Mississippi River and the heavier band out over central Missouri. I'd count on at least 1 inch in Warren County... but maybe as much as 2"... or as little as 1/2. The 2-4+ rains are going to be further west in my opinion. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 15, 2022 19:10:53 GMT -6
Thank you. I had similar thoughts. So difficult to really draw a line. Just will see how it plays out. Thanks again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 16, 2022 5:09:36 GMT -6
Swing and a miss!
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 16, 2022 5:16:37 GMT -6
Agreed only .33 in st.peters.
Even the heavy rain in central missouri is not nearly as impressive as I was expecting.
The illinois side I can tell did miss most of it.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 16, 2022 6:09:48 GMT -6
Almost .75 so far here
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 16, 2022 6:16:45 GMT -6
Very nice steady rain here in Fletcher. Vegetation is loving it. About .75 so far.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 16, 2022 6:40:06 GMT -6
Just enough to wet the pavement here.
Hope this isn't a foreboding of the upcoming winter, lol...
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 16, 2022 6:46:58 GMT -6
Very nice soaking in st.peters. even if we only total .25 to .75 in the metro this is much more beneficial than the deluge. Yards are growing fast. I have had to mow 2 times a week the last 2 weeks which is unusual for august
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Post by REB on Aug 16, 2022 7:05:58 GMT -6
Up to .09” so far..
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 16, 2022 7:38:20 GMT -6
Im shocked this last batch has pushed my gauge to .88 while its steady and not heavy its a thorough soaking. Looks like most of missouri will see a chunk out of the drought which is great news eliminating the local and reginal drought befor winter
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 16, 2022 8:59:40 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 16, 2022 10:03:12 GMT -6
Can you imagine if this was a modified clipper in the winter? There’d be a mutiny in here!
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Post by tedrick65 on Aug 16, 2022 10:32:27 GMT -6
Chris - It looks like this post/image came through blank. |
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Post by bear1 on Aug 16, 2022 10:43:57 GMT -6
The image looks ok on my computer..... 1.24" IMBY  |
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