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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 7, 2024 21:22:24 GMT -6
Need some input. Are we pretty sure of the rain Saturday evening? Looks like we may get dry slotted by the evening hours...I wouldn't rule out some lighter showers but the bulk of the impactful rainfall should be clear. |
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Post by REB on Nov 7, 2024 21:25:13 GMT -6
Need some input. Are we pretty sure of the rain Saturday evening? Looks like we may get dry slotted by the evening hours...I wouldn't rule out some lighter showers but the bulk of the impactful rainfall should be clear. Thanks BRTN |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 8, 2024 8:31:21 GMT -6
Looks like Rafael will end up slowly drifting westward in the GOM with no real threat to the US. There’s a system around the 13th I’ve had my eyes on for a few days that may bring some severe weather to the area. Worth keeping an eye on that timeframe. That does look like a favorable trof ejection for a significant episode of severe wx across the central US. If anything stronger WAA (warmer air andvection) out ahead of the severe weather! You can usually guarantee (not always probably) that we see some mid-high 70s in Nov! |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Nov 8, 2024 8:46:54 GMT -6
Looks like Rafael will end up slowly drifting westward in the GOM with no real threat to the US. There’s a system around the 13th I’ve had my eyes on for a few days that may bring some severe weather to the area. Worth keeping an eye on that timeframe. That does look like a favorable trof ejection for a significant episode of severe wx across the central US. It seems like there is an outbreak of severe weather on or around my birthday quite often which includes the tornado that hit the south side of Columbia in 98 and also another tornado that hit around O'Fallon or Lake St. Louis in the late 80's so I wouldn't be shocked if that happens. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 8, 2024 10:56:28 GMT -6
Gfs insistent a hurricane hits near Miami in about 10 days
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 8, 2024 15:47:04 GMT -6
Looks like models have trended a bit slower with the timing of rain moving in tomorrow but still show mid-level drying into the evening which should tend to scatter out the coverage. I still think the more impactful rainfall will fall mostly during the daytime hours. These setups often tend to sneak in quicker than models show and usually start soon after the mid-level ridge inflection moves off to the east which happens early tomorrow.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 8, 2024 20:33:51 GMT -6
The IEM site continues to improve. I'm not sure when this was added, but they now have a very comprehensive station page. Pretty much any station in the US is available including extensive observational histories. mesonet2.agron.iastate.edu/sites/locate.php |
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Nov 8, 2024 23:01:03 GMT -6
We're having quite the historic storm out here in the Rockies. Biggest November snowstorm in Denver since 1994 and most likely headed for a Top 10 storm on record. Already at 17 inches of snow and still another 4-6 inches forecasted thru tonight and tomorrow morning. My daughter is loving it.  |
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Nov 8, 2024 23:02:22 GMT -6
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Nov 8, 2024 23:03:05 GMT -6
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Nov 9, 2024 2:49:29 GMT -6
My coworker lives just to the west of Denver Metro. She mentioned having to shake the snow off her maple tree a couple days ago, the branches were hitting the ground.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2024 3:50:36 GMT -6
Send it east and spread the love, haha. Looks like a winter wonderland!
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Nov 9, 2024 9:01:56 GMT -6
Just measured this morning, sitting at 20 inches with snow still coming down. This was a back breaker of a snow. I'm glad I decided to shovel in increments throughout the storm to lessen the load. DIA which is the official measuring spot for Denver came in at 19.2" which puts it in the Top 12 all time.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 9, 2024 10:13:41 GMT -6
AIFS still thinks Rafael is going to get pulled north. I don't know...maybe it's starting to show some of its weak links. I'm still going to be watching it closely this winter. And thanks to weather17 I've now a got a fever that can only be cured with some cowbell...I mean snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2024 10:46:02 GMT -6
Some signs of cold starting to load and come down into the northwestern and central US by D10
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 9, 2024 11:00:35 GMT -6
Interesting and unfortunate pattern getting some traction in about 10 days. Could be another heavy rain event, caped with severe weather somewhere in the 17-19 time frame.
Great job Brtn reading early rain arrival
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Post by blueblood on Nov 9, 2024 15:06:32 GMT -6
Just measured this morning, sitting at 20 inches with snow still coming down. This was a back breaker of a snow. I'm glad I decided to shovel in increments throughout the storm to lessen the load. DIA which is the official measuring spot for Denver came in at 19.2" which puts it in the Top 12 all time. This is so awesome! Hoping we get something like that this year....particularly for Christmas (no....I'm not greedy)!! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 9, 2024 15:14:40 GMT -6
12z AI Euro has a bomb cyclone in 10 days with blizzard conditions just a bit north for the board’s liking.
First real signal for fun. A lot of cold loaded in the northwest and Canada after.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2024 15:34:45 GMT -6
12z AI Euro has a bomb cyclone in 10 days with blizzard conditions just a bit north for the board’s liking. First real signal for fun. A lot of cold loaded in the northwest and Canada after. Just came here to post this...models that aren't the GFS are showing hints of a pattern that actually resembles November towards D10. We're getting overdue for a major pattern change so hopefully that's the case. Teleconnection forecasts do seem to support that with a downturn in the AO/NAO and SOI. The GFS looks very zonal with little to no cold air drainage. And yeah, the AIFS looks weird with the movement of Rafael...I don't see why it would get left behind in the Gulf like that. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 9, 2024 15:36:17 GMT -6
We're having quite the historic storm out here in the Rockies. Biggest November snowstorm in Denver since 1994 and most likely headed for a Top 10 storm on record. Already at 17 inches of snow and still another 4-6 inches forecasted thru tonight and tomorrow morning. My daughter is loving it. What an awesome storm for you guys... and a great family memory. That's how meteorologists are born! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 9, 2024 16:27:58 GMT -6
We're having quite the historic storm out here in the Rockies. Biggest November snowstorm in Denver since 1994 and most likely headed for a Top 10 storm on record. Already at 17 inches of snow and still another 4-6 inches forecasted thru tonight and tomorrow morning. My daughter is loving it. Enjoy! EPIC!!! Where's Friv? |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 9, 2024 17:44:28 GMT -6
12z AI Euro has a bomb cyclone in 10 days with blizzard conditions just a bit north for the board’s liking. First real signal for fun. A lot of cold loaded in the northwest and Canada after. So ready!! Just for a turn to more seasonal or below normal would be fantastic... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 9, 2024 18:06:39 GMT -6
Hope your evening plans weren't foiled by the rain, REB...the back edge is being stubborn to clear the area with backbuilding.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 10, 2024 5:51:28 GMT -6
GFS definitely looks more like November this mornings run
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 10, 2024 6:22:47 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2024 8:40:47 GMT -6
Looks like we could be just 10-12 days from our first flakes of the season and some early Winter Chill thanks to a strong -NAO building between the 19th-26th of the Month before it reverses back to positive as we go into December (expected), could get dicey around 20-31st of December again with the current regime.
PNA, AO are only neutral to borderline positive so the cold won't have a ton of staying power, but it's a start.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2024 11:06:27 GMT -6
12z ggem looks interesting at D10 with southern stream energy and a lot of cold loading to the northwest.
12z gfs goes nuts with tropical energy turning into a historic nor’easter
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 10, 2024 11:31:53 GMT -6
Can't wait to be talking about nothing the next few months besides day 10 or 15 junk.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 10, 2024 11:52:48 GMT -6
lol
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Post by REB on Nov 10, 2024 12:12:16 GMT -6
Hope your evening plans weren't foiled by the rain, REB...the back edge is being stubborn to clear the area with backbuilding. Cancelled. I didn’t want to drive in it. |
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