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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2024 9:59:02 GMT -6
Forecast disco for TD19 hasn't exactly written it off yet. I wouldn't either...it will be fighting shear but the SSTs in the Gulf are still toasty and it may be another storm where the RER dynamics of the trof it phases into helps to ventilate it. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 14, 2024 12:40:59 GMT -6
Models have really gone bad today for winter in the next 2 weeks.
Oh well
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 14, 2024 13:21:53 GMT -6
Models have really gone bad today for winter in the next 2 weeks. Oh well I'm sure that tropical system is wreaking havoc...the overwhelming signal is for a major pattern change |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 14, 2024 13:34:57 GMT -6
Forecast disco for TD19 hasn't exactly written it off yet. Now named TS Sara. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 14, 2024 15:13:56 GMT -6
AIFS continues to suggest snow might be possible Wednesday with the main trough ejection.
Would be borderline with warm surface temps but something to watch
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 15, 2024 11:50:14 GMT -6
If I'm not mistaken the latest freeze in St. Louis was 2009 on November 27th. NBM only has us getting down to 36F through the 26th.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 15, 2024 16:36:42 GMT -6
If I'm not mistaken the latest freeze in St. Louis was 2009 on November 27th. NBM only has us getting down to 36F through the 26th. Unless models have trended way warmer, that won't even be close. It was looking like we could see a high around that next week. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 15, 2024 21:31:09 GMT -6
If I'm not mistaken the latest freeze in St. Louis was 2009 on November 27th. NBM only has us getting down to 36F through the 26th. Pretty much everyone besides KSTL and maybe downtown STL in the STL metro has gone below 32* two times back in October. Not a hard freeze, but a light freeze. Lambert as we all know is a big outlier. I wish there were 3 airports that took official records for STL. Maybe take the average off them. It casually got down to 32* this am too at KSUS. Clouds left, calm winds...ideal radiational cooling conditions! |
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 16, 2024 10:04:54 GMT -6
If I'm not mistaken the latest freeze in St. Louis was 2009 on November 27th. NBM only has us getting down to 36F through the 26th. Pretty much everyone besides KSTL and maybe downtown STL in the STL metro has gone below 32* two times back in October. Not a hard freeze, but a light freeze. Lambert as we all know is a big outlier. I wish there were 3 airports that took official records for STL. Maybe take the average off them. It casually got down to 32* this am too at KSUS. Clouds left, calm winds...ideal radiational cooling conditions! Yeah, KSTL is always warmer. Averaging 3 sites isn't a bad idea. You could do KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS. Those are all ASOS sites. Anyway, NBM now has KSTL dropping to 34 F next Saturday, but that's the lowest it gets through the 27th. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 16, 2024 10:16:55 GMT -6
I think chances of Lambert getting to freezing before Thanksgiving is pretty slim. Best chances would be late next week. But this pattern coming in just isnt as cold and as far west as previously advertised. SHOCKING.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 16, 2024 11:26:35 GMT -6
This morning's GFS/GEM has snow flying across the N counties on Thursday...still a fairly healthy looking shot of cold air but certainly nothing extreme. There's a lot of disagreement with how long the trof stays anchored across the east with some runs showing the onshore flow/ridging returning quickly while others continue to amplify the trof and cold air towards next weekend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 16, 2024 17:33:50 GMT -6
Just two more weeks ™
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 17, 2024 11:14:40 GMT -6
I feel it’s time for the annual reminder that we actually do not want cold and snow in November if we want an overall better winter. Let it build.
Personally I love the cold and orientation of the cold air building in western Canada. That’s what you want to see.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 17, 2024 11:28:50 GMT -6
I feel it’s time for the annual reminder that we actually do not want cold and snow in November if we want an overall better winter. Let it build. Personally I love the cold and orientation of the cold air building in western Canada. That’s what you want to see. Models have trended stronger with the trof in the E Pacific with a strong ridge near the Aleutians. That seems to be overwhelming the strong west-based -NAO and dampening the cold air drainage next week some. The pattern towards the end of the month is definitely looking to load up our source region with cA airmass. But this onshore flow has to go before we're going to get any sustained cold air. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 17, 2024 11:57:08 GMT -6
I feel it’s time for the annual reminder that we actually do not want cold and snow in November if we want an overall better winter. Let it build. Personally I love the cold and orientation of the cold air building in western Canada. That’s what you want to see. Strong disagree. Every day it doesn’t snow is one less where it can. Snow season is short. 12z gfs looks more encouraging from Thanksgiving through early December. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Nov 17, 2024 16:43:48 GMT -6
As the holiday season sweeps in, we take a moment to pause, to remember, and to honor the lives forever touched by tragedy 11 years ago today.
At 12:04 pm, a tornado touched down near I-64, its path carved in the memories of Washington County. It roared northward toward New Minden, leaving devastation in its wake. In mere moments, homes and lives were torn apart, and a peaceful countryside was forever changed. Two souls were lost that day, and countless others left to grieve, rebuild, and carry forward.
One of only eleven EF-4 or stronger tornadoes in Illinois history, this powerful storm was part of a statewide outbreak—a stark reminder that severe weather can strike with little warning here in the Midwest.
Today, we remember those affected, the resilience of our community, and the strength we find in each other. We reflect not only on the lives lost and homes shattered but on the courage it takes to rebuild, to prepare, and to face each day with hope.
That was a close call down this way …. I copied this from Washington county EMS
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 17, 2024 21:33:20 GMT -6
Pattern does look more active and troughy into Thanksgiving week. Maybe we cash in on some deformation tail end snow with the cold air advection!
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Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 18, 2024 11:44:12 GMT -6
Pattern does look more active and troughy into Thanksgiving week. Maybe we cash in on some deformation tail end snow with the cold air advection! Eye candy for late Thanksgiving Weekend and 1st of Dec..12Z... |
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Post by sgdragons on Nov 18, 2024 13:30:55 GMT -6
I feel it’s time for the annual reminder that we actually do not want cold and snow in November if we want an overall better winter. Let it build. Personally I love the cold and orientation of the cold air building in western Canada. That’s what you want to see. My son was born on November 15, 2013. We brought him home in a tornado warning and 70deg on Sunday. Four weeks later we were in one of the coldest snaps(and ended up being one of the harshest winters of my lifetime) in December to date. Ya never know |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 18, 2024 13:47:31 GMT -6
I feel it’s time for the annual reminder that we actually do not want cold and snow in November if we want an overall better winter. Let it build. Personally I love the cold and orientation of the cold air building in western Canada. That’s what you want to see. Strong disagree. Every day it doesn’t snow is one less where it can. Snow season is short. 12z gfs looks more encouraging from Thanksgiving through early December. What so it melts by noon? You show me a "good" overall winter in terms of snow which started with cold and snow in November and I'll show you oceanfront property in southern Missouri. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 18, 2024 14:49:47 GMT -6
Strong disagree. Every day it doesn’t snow is one less where it can. Snow season is short. 12z gfs looks more encouraging from Thanksgiving through early December. What so it melts by noon? You show me a "good" overall winter in terms of snow which started with cold and snow in November and I'll show you oceanfront property in southern Missouri. The r^2 between snow in November and December-February is basically 0 for both STL and Chicago so your stance might be confirmation bias/recency bias. On the other hand, there is a moderate positive correlation between November temperatures and DJF in STL. |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 18, 2024 15:34:59 GMT -6
For the record, I'm good with snow at 35* that melts by noon. I'm getting older. Drivers are getting worse. Maybe 1-2 storms on a Friday evening where it sticks around over the weekend so the kids can get out and enjoy it.
I'm a grandpa now. Time to get crotchety.
Get off my lawn!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 18, 2024 16:11:52 GMT -6
For the record, I'm good with snow at 35* that melts by noon. I'm getting older. Drivers are getting worse. Maybe 1-2 storms on a Friday evening where it sticks around over the weekend so the kids can get out and enjoy it. I'm a grandpa now. Time to get crotchety. Get off my lawn! LOL!!! Those wet behind the ears whippersnappers! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 18, 2024 17:24:55 GMT -6
Pretty healthy looking squall line headed up 44...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 18, 2024 18:53:49 GMT -6
Pretty healthy looking squall line headed up 44... Looks kinda' odd on radar. But I can't exactly figure out why. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 18, 2024 19:59:12 GMT -6
Booming thunder with a low roar of wind...feels and sounds like spring out there
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 18, 2024 20:41:20 GMT -6
Squall line is about ready to come through here.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 19, 2024 12:27:29 GMT -6
What's with these weather apps showing crazy temps today? I've seen multiple posts showing temps in the 100s, lol
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Nov 19, 2024 13:19:20 GMT -6
According to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete, yesterday and last night's total rainfall was 72". My backyard is still a muddy, squishy mess.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 19, 2024 15:37:35 GMT -6
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