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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2024 12:56:51 GMT -6
12z euro is loaded with a monster at D10.
A Plains blizzard with severe weather in the Ohio Valley or near seems very much in play.
Might have something to talk about later this week which would be nice.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 10, 2024 13:39:56 GMT -6
Hope your evening plans weren't foiled by the rain, REB...the back edge is being stubborn to clear the area with backbuilding. Cancelled. I didn’t want to drive in it. Good call. I drove to town to pick up dinner and can confirm it was not good driving conditions, lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 11, 2024 10:41:56 GMT -6
The GFS has been consistent showing one of the biggest cutoff lows I've ever seen form over the middle of the country around the 21st.
Some other models are hinting at it as well.
Not only that, but a tropical system might be brewing in the Caribbean and trying to lift north.
It might get weird.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 11, 2024 12:28:15 GMT -6
The GFS has been consistent showing one of the biggest cutoff lows I've ever seen form over the middle of the country around the 21st. Some other models are hinting at it as well. Not only that, but a tropical system might be brewing in the Caribbean and trying to lift north. It might get weird. Definitely building support for a deep trof developing across the Central US around then with a smorgasbord of weather associated with it. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 11, 2024 13:48:18 GMT -6
The GFS has been consistent showing one of the biggest cutoff lows I've ever seen form over the middle of the country around the 21st. Some other models are hinting at it as well. Not only that, but a tropical system might be brewing in the Caribbean and trying to lift north. It might get weird. Definitely building support for a deep trof developing across the Central US around then with a smorgasbord of weather associated with it. Looks like maybe some rain (maybe severe) and high winds for our neck of the woods. Or we get dry slotted! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 11, 2024 16:17:33 GMT -6
Speaking of severe storms, we still need to keep an eye on Wednesday. Models have trended a bit more amplified with the shortwave and nearly close it off in the mid-levels as it approaches. If the low-level moisture can arrive a bit sooner, strong storms will be possible and the environment is favorable for tornadoes with sufficient instability.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 11, 2024 22:33:11 GMT -6
Though, it could be possible (still very far out) that we see our first flakes of the season in 10-15 days. Maybe only flurries. There will be some cold air on the back end of that massive cutter that Snowstorm920 is talking about it. It looks too good to be true on the 12z GFS today. Where it sets up exactly who knows, but the middle of the country seems more likely now at least!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2024 2:43:50 GMT -6
The euro is getting a rather significant upgrade starting with the 06z cycle this morning. It sounds like better data assimilation at a higher resolution and a bunch of other improvements that will help the ECMWF across the board. Here is a link to the section of the ECMWF newsletter where all the improvements are discussed in detail. Newsletter Link |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 12, 2024 11:21:40 GMT -6
Florida will need to watch for another possible Major Hurricane around the 20-23rd as well.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 12, 2024 12:00:04 GMT -6
The GFS has been consistent showing one of the biggest cutoff lows I've ever seen form over the middle of the country around the 21st. Some other models are hinting at it as well. Not only that, but a tropical system might be brewing in the Caribbean and trying to lift north. It might get weird. Real Wonky today..the cut-off on both GEM and GFS dumps some heavy snow on interior Missouri from Springfield to Quincy North and West..35 and cold rain here..someone could get buried several runs of models showing a swath of Snow for 3..even 4 days..Chris mentioned about a month ago this could be the year of "Cut-Offs" interesting how we had one this past weekend CO & NM, now 10-14 days later another one..interesting phenomenon... in addition a 1056 HP pressing in from the NW while the West coast of FLA probably gets drilled again with a Pre-Thanksgiving hurricane 🌀 😳..these maps are...well wonky!! |
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 12, 2024 14:02:20 GMT -6
I remember snow around thanksgiving a few years back so it’s not unheard of.
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Post by dschreib on Nov 12, 2024 14:38:27 GMT -6
Two years ago today you all had the "surprise" morning snow. We were in K'ville singing Rocky Top a bunch of times while we hung 66 on Mizzou. Fair trade.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2024 15:02:16 GMT -6
Apparently, one of the euro upgrades includes it going to 360 hours now, so that’s cool.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 12, 2024 15:39:54 GMT -6
I remember snow around thanksgiving a few years back so it’s not unheard of. Thanksgiving is fairly late this year so that increases the possibility slightly.
1975 had a fairly heavy snow the day before Thanksgiving. It was also the year the Buffalo Bills and OJ Simpson played the Cardinals on Thanksgiving Day at Busch Stadium with piles of snow on the sidelines.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2024 16:06:26 GMT -6
Two years ago today you all had the "surprise" morning snow. We were in K'ville singing Rocky Top a bunch of times while we hung 66 on Mizzou. Fair trade. I prefer to think about how the game went last year. Probably need you to knockoff Georgia to keep Mizzou in the CFP race. Of course, also would need a healthy QB |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 12, 2024 16:08:30 GMT -6
Apparently, one of the euro upgrades includes it going to 360 hours now, so that’s cool. Where are you getting 360 hours? The AIFS is 360, but that’s not new. Only see 240 on Pivotal and tropical tidbits public versions. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2024 18:16:26 GMT -6
Apparently, one of the euro upgrades includes it going to 360 hours now, so that’s cool. Where are you getting 360 hours? The AIFS is 360, but that’s not new. Only see 240 on Pivotal and tropical tidbits public versions. On WxBell, it goes to 360 hours out now for the 00z and 12z runs. Weird, that seems to be the only site right now. Maybe the other ones need to adjust with the new update.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 12, 2024 18:25:01 GMT -6
College of DuPage model site also has it going out to 360 hours
That’s a free site
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 12, 2024 18:34:12 GMT -6
That bomb cyclone the AIFS has next week is a doozy...wow!
Looking like a pretty healthy shot of cold air is coming and it may have some lasting power with high-latitude blocking developing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2024 6:43:50 GMT -6
Looks like we're only going to realize about 100-150j/kg CAPE ahead of the front this evening...probably just going to be a few thunderstorms and nothing strong or severe.
That trof ejection next Monday kind of has the look of a cool season severe event if the warm front can lift through.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 13, 2024 9:52:53 GMT -6
Hard not to like the medium to extended pattern on the 6z AI Euro.
Talk about an aggressive shift to winter. Turkey day would be frigid for a lot of the country.
I like the timing of such a pattern. Get the PV to stretch for cold weather the end of November. Stretch relaxes and we go mild for a couple weeks of December. Pattern reverts back and we go wintry for Christmas time.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Nov 13, 2024 15:19:38 GMT -6
Does anyone else on here feed birds in their backyard? I've noticed a substantial increase in the amount of food they eat in the last couple of days. I have a large feeder, and they emptied it both yesterday and today. Normally it takes them 2-3 days to eat that much. It's probably migrants.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2024 15:39:34 GMT -6
Does anyone else on here feed birds in their backyard? I've noticed a substantial increase in the amount of food they eat in the last couple of days. I have a large feeder, and they emptied it both yesterday and today. Normally it takes them 2-3 days to eat that much. It's probably migrants. Feeding activity tends to increase with falling air pressure as well as lower temperatures. They're bulking up for the migration/overwintering. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 13, 2024 16:08:09 GMT -6
Ensembles still show a boatload of cold air coming down later next week and beyond...by D15 they show a surface ridge stretching from FL to AK courtesy of a West-based -NAO. The pattern looks mostly dry behind the cold front with Gulf moisture shut off, but some flakes are possible in the cold conveyor of the deep cyclone across the Lakes and there's clipper potential behind it with more waves digging in. Definitely a wintry looking pattern setting up.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 13, 2024 16:26:33 GMT -6
Does anyone else on here feed birds in their backyard? I've noticed a substantial increase in the amount of food they eat in the last couple of days. I have a large feeder, and they emptied it both yesterday and today. Normally it takes them 2-3 days to eat that much. It's probably migrants. No squirrels sneaking any? They'll empty a feed in an hour or two. Starlings will also do that. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Nov 13, 2024 18:17:09 GMT -6
Ensembles still show a boatload of cold air coming down later next week and beyond...by D15 they show a surface ridge stretching from FL to AK courtesy of a West-based -NAO. The pattern looks mostly dry behind the cold front with Gulf moisture shut off, but some flakes are possible in the cold conveyor of the deep cyclone across the Lakes and there's clipper potential behind it with more waves digging in. Definitely a wintry looking pattern setting up. 18z is some Eye candy..few cold days with blustery winds and flakes flying...probably not amounting to much but a secondary development on Tues before TDAY with a Heavy Wet Snow thump..lol..too far out but at least we are seeing blue lines and blue precip shields on the Maps!! Thats a thumbs 👍🏻 👌 😀 |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395
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Post by twocat on Nov 13, 2024 19:13:16 GMT -6
Does anyone else on here feed birds in their backyard? I've noticed a substantial increase in the amount of food they eat in the last couple of days. I have a large feeder, and they emptied it both yesterday and today. Normally it takes them 2-3 days to eat that much. It's probably migrants. No squirrels sneaking any? They'll empty a feed in an hour or two. Starlings will also do that. No starlings or squirrels. We have a baffle on it that does a great job keeping the squirrels from emptying the feeder. I'm hoping the birds are sensing colder weather coming!! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 13, 2024 23:08:11 GMT -6
Well so much for that Hurricane…models were way way too aggressive as it turns out.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 13, 2024 23:28:35 GMT -6
Well so much for that Hurricane…models were way way too aggressive as it turns out. Good thing !AccuNotWx! didn’t just put out a forecast showing it becoming a major in the gulf and hitting Florida as a strong hurricane. That would be crazy |
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Post by dschreib on Nov 14, 2024 8:35:08 GMT -6
Forecast disco for TD19 hasn't exactly written it off yet.
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