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Post by mchafin on Oct 10, 2018 11:06:03 GMT -6
anyone else having issues getting to the stormchasers site? Can't see any active chasers.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 10, 2018 10:48:28 GMT -6
I was just talking to a co-worker who moved here from that general area. I asked him if he knew anybody sticking around and he said no way. Everyone vacated days ago to either Atlanta or Orlando. There's a difference between riding it out because you don't have the means to get out or riding it out because you want to experience it. This could be devastating. I hope that people heeded the warnings to get out.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 9, 2018 15:40:40 GMT -6
Michael's not messing around.
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Post by mchafin on Oct 1, 2018 16:10:22 GMT -6
Machado could play shortstop here. DeJong could move to Third Base. I'm dreaming of course. But seriously, if you are going to give a career contract to a guy do it when he is 26, not 30 Call me stupid, and I know it probably won’t happen, but go after Harper. Dudes a superstar and will finally give the team a legit 3 hole hitter. The cardinals have already shown they are ready to take on a massive contract by having a trade in place for Stanton. Trade Jose Martinez and make Fowler the 4th outfielder I won't call you stupid. But I will say I don't want go anywhere near Harper. He's a hot head/meat head and I don't want that kind of attitude on the team. We have no place for expensive jerks.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 23, 2018 14:32:02 GMT -6
Congrats, Chris!
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Post by mchafin on Sept 20, 2018 9:37:03 GMT -6
It’s amusing seeing so many people complain about the heat and humidity anymore.......when 99% of them don’t work out in it every day all day long. I’m not just referring to the group either. Every where I go someone is complaining about it. I honestly don’t think the last week has been all that bad but I’m use to it I suppose. just speaking for myself, our school building is a 1966 dinosaur brick-pizza oven with no central air in the main hallways, so we wait every year for the big cool-down from summer to make hall duty, walking around, etc, a little more bearable (the worst is our supply room, which is on the 2nd floor and has no air or ventilation). Its more of a nuisance dealing with that while having to be in "casual dress" clothes. I'll also say, the 90's and humidity on weekend afternoons has made the start of little-guys soccer a drain, it might be the biggest reason I want this crud gone. I complain because I can't stand the hot/muggy weather. My kids play soccer and it's not fun running around a giant field when it's 90+. I look forward to a quick fall and a deep dive into weather.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 14, 2018 7:48:54 GMT -6
I missed it... what happened? Any video? Basically - all weather graphics were not working, other than what Chris created himself (forecast details - highs/lows, etc.)
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Post by mchafin on Sept 13, 2018 20:39:02 GMT -6
Oh my Chris. Your hands were really tied during tonight’s broadcast. Great job under lousy circumstances. I was laughing with you, Chris. Not at you. Gotta love when technology fails, and your segment is 85% dependent on it.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 12, 2018 14:01:37 GMT -6
Eye is looking like it's winking now.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 22:16:48 GMT -6
I'm thankful my friends in Charleston decided to get out of there. As I told them, even it doesn't hit their area, the peace of mind associated with having their family out of harms' way is immeasurable. Their kids are out of school indefinitely, so the harm with leaving is next to nil. The harm in staying could be life-threatening. Their house has Cat-5 shudders in the front, but not in the back. So they had to deploy the shudders they had in the back in the hopes that their house doesn't take the brunt of hurricane force winds on the back (which faces the coast). They are about 5 miles inland, so if they take a direct hit, it won't be pretty.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 18:19:36 GMT -6
I wouldn't risk it, personally. There's a chance the ridge could be stronger than modeled and the storm could shift further S. Even a short-lived wobble or well timed ERC could make a difference in the eventual track. If I were in Charleston I would be planning on heading towards Jacksonville. Bet on the Euro... or something similar to the Euro. It handles the upper ridges better on the western edge. It was the only model to drive Irma into Cuba as I recall...and it was discounted. If I were in Charleston... I would be very worried right now. Nobody in either NC or SC can let their guard down...and both areas should plan for a direct strike. The repercussions of not getting ready are too grave at this stage in game. I’ve told them to get the hell out of dodge. When I spoke to them at 5:30 central, they were finishing up the shudders and heading South.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 12:47:09 GMT -6
Should I tell my friends to stay put in Charleston?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 12:46:46 GMT -6
what does the Euro say?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 11, 2018 12:23:21 GMT -6
I've got a friend in Charleston, SC who is trying to figure out if they should leave their house or not. They are close to the coast, 12 feet above sea level. Given the potential wobbles, she wants to leave, and I told her I'd head south, not inland SC as the rains could be significant. Her husband wants to stay.
The track has been consistently north of Charleston....what would you all do?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 21:59:39 GMT -6
I'm no expert on hurricane forecasting, but with both the GFS and NAM saying that Florence is going to hang out off the coast, is there a reason that the NHC sees it coming onshore? Asking for a friend.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 20:04:21 GMT -6
One of the best! Best of luck to you Dave in your retirement. Don’t be a stranger!
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 7:38:53 GMT -6
Didn’t Dave say something about not worrying about the tropics in the long range? He did. I feel bad for saying this since he is retiring but he missed that one big time. Given Dave's longevity, I doubt he would be displeased with this criticism. That said, since he missed this one, perhaps it's a prelude of things to come. Follow this thought: He said not to worry about the tropics. Wrong. He said that this winter won't be that great for the snowbunnies. Maybe Wrong, too? I'm just being sassy.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 6:25:02 GMT -6
Didn’t Dave say something about not worrying about the tropics in the long range?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 7, 2018 23:37:47 GMT -6
Me thinks I may have been wrong.
Rain. Lots.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 7, 2018 13:09:19 GMT -6
STG - I wouldn't say that about Flo. Just the other day, GFS had her spinning around before heading out to sea. Given our 4-6" is now a 1-2" (as indicated on current models, I wouldn't put much stock into anything right now.
Too soon to throw that out there? The "don't trust the models" post?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 7, 2018 9:06:56 GMT -6
Me thinks all of the cancellations and prep work MSD was doing to stay ahead of it may have been for not. Me could be wrong though. NAM 3KM < 1"; Other NAM: 1-2".
Thoughts?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 5, 2018 21:55:23 GMT -6
Funny story:
I asked my better half, and she truly is my better half, if there were contingency plans for the camping trip (it was a Girl Scouts camping outing). She didn't know what I was talking about -- yet another reminder that unless it's severe winter weather approaching, I remain pretty silent vocally about weather impacts unless those impacts are possible tornadoes (note to self: quit internalizing and speak!).
Anyway - I asked her to reach out to the troop leaders to see if they saw the forecast for 4-6" of rain and what their plan was. She heard me say "46 inches" not 4-6". I corrected the mistake with a follow-up email to the leaders and they decided to postpone. Questions I ask myself:
(I) Did they freak out at "46 inches" of rain coming and decide to call it off because my wife brought that to their attention (even though the number she gave them was WAY OFF? (II) Did they cancel because Loufest cancelled (even though Loufest cancelled for unrelated reasons, although Loufest said in their letter that they were fearful of the lack of walk-ups making the ticket revenue smaller than needed)? OR (III) Did they really cancel because rain all weekend would have really been: (1) Cruddy for the young girls (2) Dangerous if the camp was close to a stream or river (I highlighted in my email potential life-threatening sudden rises in river/stream) OR (3) Dangerous because the girls would be sitting in tents during heavy rain and possible thunderstorms
In any event, I'm glad they cancelled because (1) It's not smart to be out in the elements during potential torrential tropical downpours (2) I get to spend the weekend with my daughter, not worrying about her being ok and (3) Nobody wants to send their kid into potential danger, no matter what that danger may be
I realize this post had a lot of lists and sub-lists. I like lists.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 5, 2018 20:56:11 GMT -6
Daughter's camping trip postponed, fyi.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 5, 2018 20:55:32 GMT -6
I look forward to hearing this when it's a winter storm Chris is talking about:
"That changes by Friday...and it is really the Friday into Sunday morning time frame when things will get cranking"
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Post by mchafin on Sept 5, 2018 8:41:06 GMT -6
So my daughter is supposed to go on a camping trip with the Girl Scouts this weekend -- Am I too much of a Nervous Nelly to pull her back from going, with the anticipated 4-6" of rain expected Fri-Sun?
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Post by mchafin on Sept 4, 2018 10:37:10 GMT -6
Well... turns out I am 0-for-2 when it comes to promotions this summer. I failed to get the chief job... and then I found out last night that I was passed over for promotion to Lt Colonel. There is less than 20% chance I'll get picked up on my second try next summer...so it looks like my USAF career may be over. I'd love to know the thought process on the chief decision, but that's probably a beer conversation. I will say this -- my viewing habits are going to change. And I'll leave it at that.
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Post by mchafin on Aug 30, 2018 9:41:37 GMT -6
When or if that stuff out west arriving here? HRR has that blob diving southeast
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Post by mchafin on Aug 15, 2018 9:50:45 GMT -6
It rained quite a bit here by St. Anthony's Medical Center. Not sure how much because I don't have a decent rain gauge...yet.
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Post by mchafin on Aug 15, 2018 9:49:18 GMT -6
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Post by mchafin on Jul 24, 2018 16:44:03 GMT -6
I would ride a Duck again if I went anywhere that had them. If you don't ride a Duck out of fear of sinking, then you shouldn't fly either. Planes crash, with more frequency then Ducks sink. Might not want to drive anywhere either. Come on people, living in fear is not the way to do it, the terrorists will win. Certainly you aren't equating a Duck boat to a modern day 737? We aren't even in the same ballpark. I won't ride a Duck today for the same reason I wouldn't ride a Duck 15-20 years ago. They are just not safe. This tragedy doesn't alter my thinking, it just reinforces it. These floating/driving death machines should probably be taken out of service.
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