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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 9, 2019 21:52:36 GMT -6
Yea gfs is nice. We may be onto something here. In my mind even an inch in early November is awesome.
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Nov 9, 2019 22:19:49 GMT -6
For some of you young whippersnappers this blog started on the old Fox 2 website. I remember that community. This blog has helped me through my Dad's passing, and has helped my mom and sister out. Thank you all for your knowledge and thank you Chris for continuing this group when Fox 2 had to conform to the corporate website. I remember this on the old Fox 2 website, as well. Wow, hard to believe it's been such a long time. Please accept my thanks, too, Chris. I feel blessed to have been a part of this place over the years. I may not contribute much other than my weather reports up here in Pike Co, but I've sure appreciated and enjoyed learning many things here and being with all of you other weather lovers. |
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Post by weatherj on Nov 9, 2019 22:28:05 GMT -6
This month so far (as well as the final few days of October) has been remarkable for the temperature departures IMO. After this sharp cold snap coming up early next week, it looks to be a bit below normal still though only slightly. Will we see the pattern break as just near to slightly above normal temps and then return to the big anomalies below normal or will the load of cold be blown and it is fairly mild for Dec and Jan? Could we see something reminiscent to the late 1970's where extreme cold was the predominant feature? I guess only time will tell.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 9, 2019 22:58:55 GMT -6
00z gem looks terrific
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 9, 2019 23:44:46 GMT -6
GEFS mean is 2” for the metro
Probably of >= 1” is 99% using 10:1 ratios
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 10, 2019 0:07:24 GMT -6
Euro has ~2" for the northern 2/3rds of the area
The commute Monday evening could be sketchy with snow/dropping temps/gusty winds
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 10, 2019 0:27:45 GMT -6
Huge trends towards a winter weather advisory level event now on the models.
The amazing part is that we are going to see moderate snow break out during the afternoon and surface temps will drop into the upper 20s.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 10, 2019 5:45:46 GMT -6
The 06Z GEFS now has 2"+ for the entire metro and 3"+ from the Mississippi river West to central MO.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Nov 10, 2019 5:46:37 GMT -6
Stl forecast:
Veterans Day
Rain and snow before 3pm, then a chance of snow between 3pm and 5pm. Temperature falling to around 28 by 5pm. North wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 10, 2019 6:12:53 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2019 6:37:53 GMT -6
6z euro looks good for 1-2 inches
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 10, 2019 6:44:04 GMT -6
I am sticking with a light coating up to maybe 1" in spots. Anticedent warmth this weekend... time of day... and marginal temps through much of the snowfall time will limit the actual amount that sticks. Could 2 inches "fall"? Yes...will 2 inches stick? Doubtful IMO. I think it is much more likely we get a heavy dusting with some possible 1" totals. I think that range is good for the entire viewing area.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 10, 2019 8:00:59 GMT -6
I am sticking with a light coating up to maybe 1" in spots. Anticedent warmth this weekend... time of day... and marginal temps through much of the snowfall time will limit the actual amount that sticks. Could 2 inches "fall"? Yes...will 2 inches stick? Doubtful IMO. I think it is much more likely we get a heavy dusting with some possible 1" totals. I think that range is good for the entire viewing area. I agree Chris and hope we are both right. I’m not wanting to do snow removal yet. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 10, 2019 8:10:58 GMT -6
I am sticking with a light coating up to maybe 1" in spots. Anticedent warmth this weekend... time of day... and marginal temps through much of the snowfall time will limit the actual amount that sticks. Could 2 inches "fall"? Yes...will 2 inches stick? Doubtful IMO. I think it is much more likely we get a heavy dusting with some possible 1" totals. I think that range is good for the entire viewing area. I agree Chris and hope we are both right. I’m not wanting to do snow removal yet. I cant rulebout a very thin slime of slush on northward facing and sheltered roads...things that get very little sun. Roads will definitely be wet... and wet roads are slick too. But I dont see enough snow to put a blade down. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 10, 2019 8:12:24 GMT -6
12z nam is a bit rough.
Best band north of 70 this run
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2019 8:17:11 GMT -6
12z nam is a bit rough. Best band north of 70 this run Here comes the shaft. Little to no snow south of I-70. |
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2019 8:17:45 GMT -6
Doesnt the nam usually have a north bias. I think 70 is the bullseye for 1 to 2
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2019 8:19:54 GMT -6
Nam still shows 1.9 in st.charles county. I think we are all fine
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Post by cardsnweather on Nov 10, 2019 8:22:38 GMT -6
Hi-res is bad. Would be a dusting for anyone south of 70.
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Post by Tilawn on Nov 10, 2019 8:54:16 GMT -6
I agree Chris and hope we are both right. I’m not wanting to do snow removal yet. I cant rulebout a very thin slime of slush on northward facing and sheltered roads...things that get very little sun. Roads will definitely be wet... and wet roads are slick too. But I dont see enough snow to put a blade down. Oh I know there won’t be enough to blade. And honestly with the wind as strong as it will be tomorrow I would think I precip stops by mid afternoon it’ll dry off the pavement surfaces as well. |
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Post by weatherj on Nov 10, 2019 8:59:30 GMT -6
Even if we see barely enough snow to cover the ground, I think that's still a win for this time of year. Last year's snow was definitely a special occurrence for many in the area for the nice depth. I don't remember last year having these potent of cold shots though. I'm wondering what November of 1983/89 temperatures were. Two years that had VERY cold stretches in December.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 10, 2019 9:16:38 GMT -6
Even if we see barely enough snow to cover the ground, I think that's still a win for this time of year. Last year's snow was definitely a special occurrence for many in the area for the nice depth. I don't remember last year having these potent of cold shots though. I'm wondering what November of 1983/89 temperatures were. Two years that had VERY cold stretches in December. And that's really all this system had/has the potential for. There is no significant shortwave...it is almost entirely frontogenetically forced...and that forcing will be transient. All things considered, this little system and big shot of cold air will be about what has been advertised. Anything more than that will make this a major over achiever and I dont see that happening. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2019 9:21:29 GMT -6
RGEM looks sweet. Likely over cooked but one can dream.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 10, 2019 9:39:10 GMT -6
GFS back to a drier solution with little to no accumulations, mostly flurry type stuff.
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2019 9:44:59 GMT -6
Still gfs is up to 1 inch. Its just going to be nice to see snow during the day
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 10, 2019 9:54:44 GMT -6
Going to be beautiful out today
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 10, 2019 9:54:54 GMT -6
And today i bet we pop to 72 befor the front moves through mid afternoon. I currently am showing 65.1
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 10, 2019 10:07:34 GMT -6
I'm old enough to remember the nws saying everything that fell was going to be snow, now good bit of it will be rain. That wet ground, coupled with probably 70 degrees today will likely make it a useless snow tomorrow. It's junk snow during the day unless it's been cold and the temp is like 27 during the event, and it comes down at a good clip. None of which is likely. May as well all be rain.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 10, 2019 10:41:30 GMT -6
GFS back to a drier solution with little to no accumulations, mostly flurry type stuff. False. A bit drier but still an inch possible. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Nov 10, 2019 10:55:11 GMT -6
The Fox 2 Weather App shows 1-3 inches tomorrow.
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